Superforecasting is based on research conducted through the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting tournament run under the auspices of the U.S. Intelligence Community. Tetlock and Gardner explore why some people consistently make better predictions than others, and what techniques allow them to do so.

These “superforecasters” outperform experts, pundits, and even intelligence analysts with access to classified data—not because they’re geniuses, but because of how they think, update their beliefs, and approach uncertainty.

Key Insights

1. Forecasting is a Skill, Not a Gift

• Anyone can improve forecasting ability with training and practice.

• Superforecasters don’t have superior IQs; they have open-minded, reflective, and evidence-driven thinking styles.

2. The Importance of Probability

• Superforecasters quantify uncertainty using probabilities instead of vague terms like “might” or “possibly.”

• They think in percentages (e.g., 65% chance of an event), and regularly update these estimates as new information comes in (a process akin to Bayesian updating).

3. Fermi-izing Problems

• They break complex questions into smaller, manageable components—like physicist Enrico Fermi did.

• This technique helps reduce cognitive overload and makes judgments more precise.

4. Thinking in Bets (Like Poker Players)

• Rather than trying to be certain, superforecasters assign probability estimates and accept that they may be wrong.

• They seek accuracy over ego satisfaction.

5. Active Open-Mindedness

• Superforecasters constantly test their assumptions, seek out disconfirming evidence, and update their beliefs without attachment.

• They are intellectually humble and avoid overconfidence.

6. The “Outside View” vs. “Inside View”

• The inside view focuses on the specifics of the current situation.

• The outside view looks at base rates and historical data for similar events.

• Superforecasters integrate both perspectives for more accurate predictions.

7. Teamwork and Collaboration Help—If Done Right

• Diverse teams of forecasters who challenge each other respectfully outperform individuals.

• However, groupthink must be avoided

Takeaways:

1. Train Your Forecasting Muscles

• Practice making probabilistic predictions about real-world events (e.g., elections, economic trends).

• Track outcomes and assess your calibration (how well your confidence matched reality).

2. Keep a Forecasting Journal

• Write down your reasoning and predictions.

• When outcomes are known, reflect on what you got right or wrong and why.

3. Seek Feedback

• Embrace constructive criticism and use it to refine your models of the world.

4. Use Aggregated Forecasting

• Combining multiple viewpoints can often outperform any individual.

• Tools like prediction markets and ensemble methods work for this reason.

5. Embrace Humility

• Accept that the world is unpredictable—but you can improve your odds.

• Don’t fall prey to hindsight bias (“I knew it all along”).

Superforecasting isn’t about crystal balls—it’s about thinking in terms of probabilities, evidence, and updating beliefs. Tetlock’s work shows that with the right mindset and practices, anyone can learn to make more accurate, less biased predictions.